Posts Tagged ‘slowdown’
Seeking Alpha post on the Chinese Olympic Bubble
Activity on the Olympic Bubble seems to be picking up again. I came across this post on Seeking Alpha that stresses that the Chinese Olympic Bubble is the next “true” bubble after the Nasdaq Tech bubble and the Japan Nikkei Bubble.
Talking about those two bubbles, the author says “Valuation was in the stratosphere. Participants were fully convinced on the ideas of the Technology Miracle and Japanese Miracle respectively. And resources were severely misallocated.”
He thinks the same is happening in China now “Here we have all of the ingredients for a classic bubble – massive hysteria on faulty facts.”
Don’t forget to go through the comments on the post… they are as interesting (if not more) as the post itself.
Your might also be interested in what the pro-China folk had to say (back in 2007, kind of in response to Alan Greenspan’s comment) about the possibility of a post-olympic crash in this post I made earlier.
Air Freight numbers drop, passenger growth hits 5 year low
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) international traffic data for June 2008 showed a continued slowing of demand growth for air transport.
“The global economic turbulence clearly shows in the 0.8% drop in freight volumes compared to last year. Although the passenger demand grew by 3.8%, this is the slowest growth that we have seen since the industry was hit by the SARS crisis in 2003. With consumer and business confidence falling and sky-high oil prices, the situation will get a lot worse,” said Giovanni Bisignani, Director General and CEO of IATA in a press release issued by the organization.
“The airline sector is in trouble. Losses this year could reach US$6.1 billion, more than wiping out the US$5.6 billion that airlines made in 2007. Falling demand and rising costs are re-shaping the industry,” said Bisignani. “To survive the crisis, urgent action is needed. Airports and air navigation service providers must come to the table with efficiencies that deliver cost savings. Labour must understand that efficiency is the only path to job security. And governments must stop crazy taxation and give airlines the freedom to merge and consolidate where it makes business sense.”
Reproduced below are numbers from the IATA website
| Jun 2008 vs. Jun 2007 | RPK Growth | ASK Growth | PLF | FTK Growth | ATK Growth |
| Africa | -1.5% | -0.8% | 67.6 | -1.9% | -4.7% |
| Asia/Pacific | 3.2% | 4.9% | 75.8 | -4.8% | -0.9% |
| Europe | 2.1% | 4.4% | 77.9 | 0.7% | 3.5% |
| Latin America | 12.5% | 10.1% | 73.5 | -12.7% | 8.2% |
| Middle East | 9.6% | 9.8% | 75.5 | 12.1% | 11.8% |
| North America | 4.4% | 6.1% | 83.7 | 4.0% | 6.6% |
| Industry | 3.8% | 5.5% | 77.6 | -0.8% | 3.3% |
| YTD 2008 vs. YTD 2007 | RPK Growth | ASK Growth | PLF | FTK Growth | ATK Growth |
| Africa | -1.4% | -2.0% | 68.2 | -9.0% | -4.8% |
| Asia/Pacific | 4.8% | 5.5% | 74.8 | 0.8% | 2.0% |
| Europe | 3.5% | 5.2% | 75.1 | 3.1% | 4.6% |
| Latin America | 16.4% | 14.5% | 73.5 | -11.9% | 9.9% |
| Middle East | 10.6% | 10.7% | 74.8 | 11.8% | 12.0% |
| North America | 6.0% | 6.7% | 79.6 | 4.6% | 6.4% |
| Industry | 5.4% | 6.2% | 75.5 | 2.4% | 4.6% |
Explanation of measured terms:
- RPK: Revenue Passenger Kilometres measures actual passenger traffic
- ASK: Available Seat Kilometres measures available passenger capacity
- PLF: Passenger Load Factor is % of ASKs used. In comparison of 2008 to 2007, PLF indicates point differential between the periods compared
- FTK: Freight Tonne Kilometres measures actual freight traffic
- ATK: Available Tonne Kilometres measures available total capacity (combined passenger and cargo)
